The hottest national reserve auction tamps the rub

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The author believes that the analysis of the current Shanghai rubber market mainly focuses on two points: the first is inflation expectations, and the second is to adjust the price structure of Shanghai rubber

first of all, from the perspective of inflation expectations, China's strong economic recovery may drive a new round of cyclical price fluctuations. The chairman of the Chicago Fed said that the high unemployment rate and low inflation mean that the Fed will likely maintain an interest rate policy close to zero for a long time, which will lead to the pressure of imported inflation. The world's crude oil demand will increase, which will have a significant impact on the prices of downstream consumer products. On the evening of August 8, the prices of domestic commodities will also rise

secondly, from the perspective of adjusting the price structure of Shanghai Jiao, Shanghai Jiao has maintained a wide range of 23000 yuan to 26000 yuan from the end of 2009 to now. At present, the price of about 24500 yuan is exactly the central axis price that has fluctuated in the past five months. It is difficult to rise, and it is more difficult to fall. External forces are needed to adjust the price structure of Shanghai Jiao, so as to make room for the future market to rise. The state reserve auction is part of the structural adjustment

the state reserve auction of Tianjiao has three effects on Shanghai Jiao Futures: 1. The first transaction price is yuan, which is about 80% of the price of 3-jiao last week. Now the price of 3-jiao has reached US $4100. Will the second transaction price rise? If the auction price is more than 26000 yuan, the pull-up effect on Shanghai Jiao will be obvious, and the national reserve auction will turn from bad to good; The experimental results are shown in Table 2, figures 1 to 32. Another function of the state reserve auction on Shanghai rubber is to tamp the price of rubber. The state reserve auction acts as a pressure spring. The lower the pressure is, the greater the future market rise. 3. The reserved rubber sources held by the State Reserve Bureau are generally old rubber stored during the production and import period, which cannot be used in the Shanghai rubber futures market. The physical samples of natural rubber are required to be in the national standard: 10*10*55mm style delivery, and the natural rubber obtained through competitive auction can only be used in the final consumption link. The inventory of Shanghai rubber futures market and the number of registered warehouse receipts will not increase significantly due to the State Reserve selling rubber sources. Many small and medium-sized enterprises in China basically live by tax evasion, The state reserve auction is just a psychological pressure on Shanghai Jiao investors to alleviate the embarrassment that the inventory of Shanghai Jiao futures is only more than 30000 tons

it is a good thing to regulate the glue price. There is no need to panic about the Shanghai glue market. Replacing investment demand with rigid demand and replacing foam economy with real economy is an inevitable link for the price of Shanghai Jiao, which makes up for the defects caused by the congenital deficiencies of the price mechanism of Shanghai Jiao. More importantly, the State Reserve is determined to regulate and control the Shanghai rubber market. The pain of the current state reserve auction means that there is a broad space for the development of Shanghai rubber price in the future. On the contrary, if the state reserve still paralyzes the nerve of the market with foam and hypes up the Shanghai rubber price, the rubber price will fall into a situation of eternal doom

to sum up, the state adjusts the housing price structure, and what market will the real estate speculation funds enter after coming out? Entering the commodity market is the most likely result. In addition, although the new rubber has been cut, at this stage, investors should firmly grasp the main contradiction of Shanghai rubber, inflation expectations and adjust the price structure of Shanghai rubber, rather than supply and demand, otherwise they will be blinded by the surface phenomenon of things. In the face of high prices, the future State Reserve will also face the problem of replenishing the Treasury, and the impact on the rubber market may also show short-term adjustment and medium-term benefit. After all, the adjustment is also a part of the bull market

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